The Price of Magic

There has been a lot of discussion recently on MTG Card prices. Partly because of the recent news released about the changes to Shards of Alara & the addition of the Mythic Rare. Some say this will create $150 “must have” tournament cards while others contend that the Mythic Rares will have no effect on the price of cards and may lower the price of other rares. Who is right?

Establishing Credibility: I graduated with a degree in Business from the Walton College of Business at the University of Arkansas. At the time, we were ranked in the top 25 business schools of the country. I had an incredible econ professor who I thank today for my understanding of market forces & it changed how I look at the world. With that said, I wanted to take a look at the Prices of MTG Cards through the eyes of the market.

Here are a couple of facts that we need to assume before the discussion can happen.

1. Price is effected by Supply & Demand. As Demand Increases, Price Increases, As Supply decreases, Price Increases. If Demand Increases & Supply Increases, you have to do math
2. The Market is perfectly knowledgeable
3. No one person has perfect knowledge of MTG
4. While MTG players are limited to 4 copies of 1 card in standard, it is assumed that they will be trading for other cards they need, so it is not uncommon for a player to buy more than one of a “good card”
5. We are going to focus on the Standard T2 formats (we aren’t going to talk about Lotus Blossoms or Alpha/Beta Rares whose values are currently derived similar to a Mickey Mantle Rookie – “collectible” & “historically significant”)

Ok, I believe that sets up a few ground rules for us in the discussion. Lets first look at how market forces have affected current card values.

Mutavault: ~ $38

Mutavault is a great card. A land that can become a 2/2 creature that is still a land so it can’t easily be destroyed. In January of 2008, this card was priced at $15! That was a good rare price, so why the jump?

Mutavault is Rare (low supply) & versatile (high demand). The versatility of Mutavualt makes it unique. You can play it in almost ANY deck with any color or any theme! When supply is down and demand is up, price is high. When demand is WAY high, the price is directly related. So, I present to you one of the most expensive cards in the standard format: Mutavault.

Bitterblossom: ~ $27

Bitterblossom is a Rare (low supply) & an incredible card to play. It is an enchantment (harder to remove), it makes 1/1 fliers (evasive) & it is cheap to play (2 mana). It is less versatile than Mutavault (slightly less demand). But those things are enought to take the cards value from $7 in January to $27 today, is it? No. A unique factor in this card’s value (compared to Mutavault) is a popular deck that plays it: Rogues. Faeries. The Faeries deck is one of the hardest to play against and was expected to preform much better than it did at the Pro Tour Hollywood & at all the regionals tournaments. So how does being in a popular deck affect the card value? Obviously, it increases Demand, thereby Increasing Price. Due to the poor performance of these Faeries decks, you would think that the price to stabilize or go down, but I don’t believe that this is the case. Even though the pro tour and recent regionals have proved that a good sideboard can beat a good Faeries deck, Faeries is just too powerful and the card is just too good. Even now, players have started to find other ways to utilize this power packed rare. So I expect to see Bitterblossom continue to rise as the Block format grows.

Tarmogoyf: ~ $42+

THE most expensive card currently in the standard format: Tarmogoyf. This card has appeared in numerous Top 8s, numerous winning decks (Charles Gindy winner of Pro Tour Holloywood to name one), can be played on turn 2, has a great ability, & is RARE! But that is only a portion of this card’s value! The other portion is a topic that we will get into more later: Tarmogoyf is commonly referred to as “BROKEN”. Essentially, it is too powerful & too quick in this format. This is tirelessly argued in online forums, but if there were other more powerful cards in existence, the value of this card would go down as the playing field would level. So, to summarize, the demand for this card is nuts because of the various winning decks that have included it, it’s POWER vs the Casting Cost, & the supply (RARE). This is a mixture between the Bitterblossom’s factors mixed with the Mutavault’s factors = TARMOGOYF. However, in October, this card will no longer be allowed in Standard, so I expect the value to start going down soon unless those in the Extended format figure out how to abuse this card’s power.

OK, so that is a rundown on the market forces of cards that are currently in play int he standard format. What about the Mythic Rares coming up in Shards of Alara? How will these values be determined and will it change any of the above?

Shards of Alara

The change of Supply

Alara will contain 249 cards – 20 Basic Lands = 229 (non-land) Cards

• 15 Mythic Rares (6.6% of the 229 Cards)
• 53 Rares (23.1%)
• 60 Uncommons (26.2%)
• 101 Commons (44.1%)

There are fewer cards in the set, so the % of Total Rares is 29.7% which is about average historically. Rosewater’s article compares Rares in previous Sets to Mythic Rares in Shards of Alara. I need to deal with this first. I’m not sure what he is actually communicating but here is the data:

Mythic Rares in Alara make up 6.6% of the large (229 card) sets.

In “Paper” & “Scissors” (145 card set) they make up 6.9%.

1. In his article he compares Tenth Edition Rares (which make up 33.3% of the set or 10.9% of the Time Spiral Block) to Mythic Rares in a Large Set (6.6% or 2.01% of the Block).
2. He compares Shadowmoor Rares (28.5% of set, 8.97% of Block) to Mythic Rares in a Small Set (6.9% of set, 1.34% of Block).
3. He compares Future Sight Rares (33.3% of set, 5.41% of Block) to Rares of Large Sets (23.1% of the set, 7.09% of the Block) & Planor Chaos Rares (24.2% of set, 3.6% of Block) to Rares of a Small Set (24.1% of set, 4.68% of Block).

The only thing I can understand is #3, but the first two are way off the mark. I’m not sure what he was trying to get at, but his example failed a basic mathamatical comparison! I’m afraid most of his article was “spin.”

While that is a bit off topic, it does illustrate the difference in supply for the Mythic Rares.

But if you have a low supply and no demand, you don’t have a price increase, you have a “specialty good” that few will want.

Effect on Demand

It is assumed since Magic is a “trading card game” that mythic rares will automatically become desirable. So, Demand will start “higher” for mythic rares than rares. The normal prices on rares hover around $10. Mythic Rares should go for $13 – $15 or $20? Depending on the card. That isn’t cheap, but it isn’t that bad. What if we add in the same factors that have affected Mutavault? At the very least, you’d be looking at a $50 or $60 Mythic Rare! Bitterblossom’s factors? $40 or $50 Mythic Rare minimum. If it was just an “ok card” that wasn’t a game changer, it would probably stick around $10 – $20. If it is a good card and useful to most players, but not at the level of Mutavault, then I expect it to be around $20 – $30. All of that to say, demand for most mythic rares will be higher, just has demand for most rares is higher than uncommons.

A BROKEN Mythic Rare

This is the worst fear of every current magic player. The Broken Mythic Rare. The game changing, must have, tournament level, mythic rare, that is a must have for multiple decks! This fear comes from seeing rares like Tarmogoyf hit standard play and change the way we play the game. This fear comes from a distrust between the player and the corporate owned Wizards. The fear comes from seeing imperfections in the past, seeing cards slip through the cracks. In my opinion, it is a valid fear.

The BROKEN Mythic Rare has a chance to be over $100 for a single card. Why? It is a high Demand, hard to find, game changing, tournament level, Mythic Rare in multiple winning decks!

How Rare is this Broken Mythic Rare? Wizards says that 1 in 8 (12.5%) booster packs will contain a Mythic Rare. So, in a box of 36 Boosters, you will get 4 or 5 Mythic Rares. We are looking for 1 Mythic Rare of 15 (6.67%), so when you do the math, you have a 1 in 120 (1/120) or 0.8% chance of opening a Broken Mythic Rare. But what is the chance that your box of 36 boosters will contain the 1 particular Mythic Rare you need? It is between & = or between a 1 in 4 chance and a 3 in 10 chance in Alara. (Depending on how the cards are randomized in packs and randomized in booster boxes).

So what are the chances that you will open the particular Broken “regular rare” in that box of 36 boosters? (7/8 * 1/53) = 7 in 424. So the chances of opening a particular broken regular rare is between & or between a 4 in 9 chance & a 3 in 5 chance! Almost DOUBLE the Chances of the particular elusive Broken Mythic Rare. Does this mean that the price of a Broken Mythic Rare will be DOUBLE that of a Broken Regular Rare at least: (Tarmogoyf) x 2 = $84! Maybe on the high end…

What were the chances of opening the BROKEN Tarmogoyf in a box of Futuresight?
1 of 60 Rares in a box of 36 boosters

12 Boxes nets a 99.92% vs 20 boxes for the Broken Mythic Rares

So, if Goyf is half the price of 1 box (~$40) of boosters, then what would our BROKEN Mythic Rare (BMR) be if it slips through the cracks?
Goyf: 1/24th of the price of 12 boxes (its 99.9% chance) = ~$40
BMR: 1/24th of the price of 20 boxes (its 99.9% chance) is ~$67

So I would say that the Price of our BROKEN Mythic Rare would hover from $60 to $90! But this is only for a BROKEN must have Mythic Rare, which we are told will not exist.

What do all the words mean?

I know, there are a lot of “words” up there. In my humble opinion, the new Mythic Rares will not have a huge impact on the card prices in the game of magic. We expect that Mythic Rares will be better cards than regular rares so they will be worth more or will cost more. And unless a Broken Mythic Rare slips through the cracks, prices should be pretty similar to what we have today.

Thanks for reading. I’d love to hear your feedback!

Why DON’T You NOT Homebrew

(I wrote this post on the MTG Salvation forums in response to two post: Why do you netdeck & Why DON’T you netdeck, but my post read more like an article, so I decided to post it here is well. Click Here for the original.)

With all this discussion on Netdecks vs Homebrew, I just wanted to bring to light the ridiculousness of this conversation.
Everyone Netdecks & Everyone Homebrews. Why does it matter?

Every Homebrewer has a deck that looks remarkably like a deck that was listed online with just 2 or 3 changes so they can rationalize the “homebrew” version.

Every NetDecker has a deck that they custom built and want to take to FNM, but they are a little nervous that they will totally bomb and finish last.

NetDecking breeds Homebrewing. A new player starts with the cards they have. They are forced to homebrew and they get beat A LOT. Then they get online to try and find the best combonations of these cards. They find a deck and realize, “If I buy 1 of these and 4 of these, I can have a pretty nice deck”. So, they buy a few cards. Now they have a “NetDeck” with a few Money Mods. As they get better and better, they start to change some things out. Alter cards to work better with the local metagame. And before you know it, they have a “homebrew” that was once a NetDeck.

The same can be said for the pragmatic Homebrewers. They put together a nice homebrew. They do some play testing against NetDecks and realize that they can beat almost everything but Lark & Elves (which can’t beat Lark either – what does?). So, the time comes for FNM or a PTQ and they bring a Lark deck and the homebrew. Why? Because if a majority of the field is about to throw down Elves, the Homebrewer doesn’t want to lose all night, so he windmills his Lark Netdeck to make some money and have a good time.

In my opinion, the more cards that are available, the more creative homebrews you get (that then turn into net decks). That is why Extended players have crazy sweet homebrews but at your local standard FNM, you will only see a few homebrews in the mix (and they hardly ever win).

There is nothing WRONG with NetDecking. It is smart for new players to do as they learn the game.
There is nothing WRONG with Homebrewing. It is a lot of fun!
Both are part of the game.

Who really cares why we do/don’t netdeck/homebrew? Can we please get off of our high horse and be more accepting of ALL TYPES of magic game play? “Can’t we all just get along.”

I think the Pilot matters just as much (if not more) than the deck. A good pilot can take a bad deck a long way (Quick & Toast). A bad pilot can’t win with even the best deck. How do you get better? Drive EVERYTHING! Netdecks and Homebrews! Deck building is just 1 part of the game.

It can take up to six months to build a nice house, but that same house can be lived in for a hundred years (baring any bans a restrictions from Wizards of the Coast!).

Playing the game is just as important as building the deck & building decks provides more insight into playing the game.

Pro Tour Hollywood: Deck Techs

Here is a list of all the Deck Techs from Pro Tour Hollywood:

Elf Grenade

Quick & Toast

Red/Black Tokens

Project 420.5n

Red/Green Agro

Ten Commandments

Pro Tour Hollywood Day 3

Here is the vid from Day 3 of Pro Tour Hollywod

Pro Tour Hollywood Day 2

Here are the Day 2 Vids from Pro Tour Hollywood

Pro Tour Hollywood Day 1

Here are the vids that wizards produced for Pro Tour Hollywood, Day 1…

Wafo's 5 color deck sounds awesome! I can't wait to see what happens tomorrow. I'll be in a few local tournaments, but PT will be a great one to watch! I'm looking forward to the feature match coverage!

Deck Tech: Elf Grenade!

It is a little hard to hear, but this looks like a fun deck.

Thanks to Darryl for posting the DECK LIST in my comments section.

My Corrupt Trip From Last to 2nd Place in Draft!

The first time I played a draft, I came in last (or tied with those who came in last). I didn’t like that, but I enjoyed the experience of the draft. I didn’t get any good cards and I definitely get my money’s worth out of the cards!

I jumped online and read several articles on drafting and how to win in Shadowmoor. Some of these suggested going for bombs only while others said I should go with removal. Still others said evasion was best and some said to take your first couple of rare’s and follow their color lead.

I took this advice and did a little of everything! Last night, I came in 2nd place and I got the most money out of my packs! Here is how it happened!

My first pack was INCREDIBLE. I wish I could have just played the entire pack. I drafted Dusk Urchins because of the card advantage that is so important in limited. He is a 4/3 for 3 and states: Whenever Dusk Urchins attacks or blocks, put a -1/-1 counter on it. When Dusk Urchins is put into a graveyard from play, draw a card for each -1/-1 counter on it.

So, I can throw him down on turn 3, attack for 4 & then 4 the next turn & block once then I draw 3 cards when he goes to the grave! Awesome card! So I knew I would be involved with black this game. The next pack I was passed was full of blue/white & green & red. Not much black for me to chose from so I just took some common. Same thing with the third deck, but I hate drafted a fox fire oak because I hate playing against them. About half way through this draft, I started to pick up that not may people were touching blue/black or black. There were always black uncommons left in the draft! I drafted 2 Faerie Macrabes which provided some evasion and a chance to break a cycle or two. Then, in the last 5 cards, there it was… Corrupt! Corrupt takes 6 mana (5 colorless and 1 black) to deal damage equal to the number of swamps you control to target player or creature & I gain that much life! I took it immediately! I knew that this was going to be a good draft. Corrupt is incredible in this format! I couldn’t believe I had it & it was among the last cards. I was playing against some GREAT players so I knew they knew it was a good card & I just figured they weren’t in that color. So, that sent me to mono black in the rest of the draft. I picked up a few Ashenmoor Cohorts which get +1/+1 when I control another black creature making it a 5/4 for 6 (not great, but not bad) & I nabbed 3 Gravelgill Axesharks which have presist (after it dies, it comes back with a -1/-1 counter on it) and are 3/3’s for 5 mana (which is GREAT because of persist!). I only used 2 in the deck, but it made a BIG difference in game play. Other heroes to mention: Blowfly Infestations, Disturbing Plot, Loch Korrigan, Smolder Initiate, Fate Transfer, Sootwalkers, Tyrannize, Spiteflame Witch, Sootstoke Kindler, & Poison the Well.

Here is how I won some games! (Finally!)

Dusk Urchins + Disturbing Plot + Blowfly Infestation + Fate Transfer = FRUSTRATION!!

Ok, turn 3, I play Dusk Urchins, Turn 4, Blowfly & attack with Dusk Urchins. Turn 5, Save Mana & Attack with Dusk Urchins. Their Turn 5, Blocked with Dusk Urchins, but before damage resolves, Fate Transfer Counter onto another (non attacking creature) killing it, sending it to the grave. Blowfly activated & I put a -1/-1 counter on his attacker, knocking him off and dealing no damage to my Dusk Urchin. Since he blocked he also gets a -1/-1. Turn 7, attack with Dusk Urchin, Turn 8, Attack with Dusk Urchin, he goes to the grave, blowfly activates, -1/-1 counter goes onto his 3/2 making it a 2/1. I draw 3 cards (for the 3 -1/-1 counters on DU) I tap mana and use Disturbing Plot to revive Dusk Urchin back into my hand. He attacks for 2, I block with my 1/1, killing his 2/1. Blowfly activates and I place a -1/-1 counter on his other 1/1. My 1/1 dies. The board is cleared! Turn 9, I play the Dusk Urchin. He plays a 1/1 w/haste & attacks. My DU takes a Counter & blocks. Turn 10, I attack with Dusk Urchin & he takes 3. He drops a 3/3 creature. Turn 11, I Fate Transfer from dusk Urchins to his big creature, making it a 1/1 & I attack with DU. He takes the damage. Turn 12, he drops 2 creatures and attacks with his 1/1. & I take the hit. He has two 2/2 creatures out with abilities of somesort. By this point in the game, I’ve played 2 creatures, 2 instants, 1 sorcery & 1 enchantment. I’m holding a crap load of great stuff and just frustrating him with my DU combo! His life total was around 7 or something & I was sitting in the high teens. The next few turns I just played Ashenmoor Cohorts & some smaller creatures. I don’t block any of his attacks which aggravates him, but I’m holding Corrupt & I want to make sure it doesn’t get countered. Then… he taps ALL of his mana and plays 2 more creatures. He thinks we are in a creature race, but I was just waiting to see all of his mana tapped. Next turn, Corrupt. I win!!!!

SWAMPS + CORRUPT & Great Timing = SURPRISE!!! I WIN!

I was on the draw & my hand had a 1/1 haste, Corrupt, & 5 Swamps! LOL. I knew this was my only Corrupt and I knew that I would have a GREAT chance of drawing more and more creatures every time and I would be able to play mana 5 turns straight. If this was constructed, I’d mulligan. Turn 1, swamp, T2, Swamp, T3, Swamp & my 1/1 Hate. I’m drew 2 more swamp and Ashenmoor Cohort. Interesting… he is loading the board with creatures, elves and such. He hits me for about 4 and I’m down to 16. Turn 5, I draw Faerie Macrabe and play her. Turn 6, Ashenmoor. He stops attacking. Turn 7, Faerie Mac #2 & he plays an enchantment that makes each player draw 2 every turn and that player loses 2 life… Turn 8, Gravelgill Axeshark, Turn 9 (still dropping lands) I play Blowfly & another Ashenmoor. Those guys are 5/4s! I’m down to 10 life. I swing with everything I’ve got. He chump blocks and burns a few of them. When all is said and done, I have Gravelgill & a Faerie & an Ashenmoor left. Half my guys died. He is at 14 life. On his turn, he swings with his remaining guys. I fate transfer a counter and take 4 damage. I’m at 6. I draw 2 & now I’m at 4!!! He was tapped out. I have 12 swamps and I’m holding corrupt. I could take him down to 2 but he hand enough blockers to chump block and attack me. But then I remember his enchantment!! If I could deal 10 damage to him now, he would kill himself when he drew 2 cards!!! This was hysterical to me. I decided to swing away first and he played a few instants, tapped his mana out & killed off most my guys and he says, “That’s game. I’ve won. You can’t do anything and If I attack the next turn I can do enough damage to kill you.” Then I said, “But I haven’t said ‘end of turn’. It is still my turn.” He said, “Well, OK. Enjoy it while it lasts.” I organized the board, my library, my graveyard… then as I was “organizing” my swamps… thinking “hard” about how to get out of this mess… I smirked, tapped 6 of them and tossed corrupt in the middle of the table. You should have seen his face!! It was priceless! The “new guy” beat him! No way! He just kept staring at the card. I said, “Good game” & he said, “But I still have two life left!” Then I took my corrupt and replaced it with his enchantment that he played earlier. “You die at the beginning of your own turn.” This was my best game ever!

2-0

Poison the Well Early = Demoralizing Victory!

Game 1, I’m on the draw. Opponent mulligans to 6. Plays a Mountain. I drew Corrupt again with Poison the Well and a few 2 & 3 drops. I lay a swamp and drop my only 1 drop with haste and I hit for 1. He drops a Mountain and looks frustrated. Turn 2, I lay a 2 drop. Turn 3 he lays a 1 drop. This tells me that he doesn’t have much to play until he gets more mana out there. He has 2 mountains and a forest. The card he played was a green 1 drop with a forest cost to activate a pumping ability. Turn 3 I drop another 2 drop and swing with what I have. He takes the damage. Turn 4, he DROPS NO Land and plays a 1 drop. Turn 4 for me, I Poison his Well! He looked at me and said, “No way!” He starts to removed a tapped Mountian and I said, wait, “Remove the Forest!” With no other land in sight and only green creatures in hand, he scoops!

I lose the next game due to a massive amount of creatures he draws and I get mana starved on turn 4!

Next game is a LONG one. In short, it was a creature battle while I was holding corrupt since the second draw. He kept pinging me down to 12 with that stupid Power of Fire enchantment! Tap to deal 1 damage to player or creature! His creature has a “Pay mana to untap & pump +3/+3″ type of ability so my 2/2’s he is killing with that stupid power of fire! In late game, I have 2 Ashenmoor Cohorts out, 2 Gavelgill Axesharks (one with a persist -1/-1 counter on it), 2 Faerie Macrabes, 1 Sootwalker and a few little guys. He had “Howled” so he has 4, 2/2 wolf tokens in play, Grief Tyrant, the Power of Fire pinger & a few others in play. We are at a stand still. He plays an card allowing him to draw more cards and looks happy, but is tapped out from pinging me and playing the card draw ability. My turn… Tyrannize. Now he has to discard that hand that he was so happy with or take 7 life. He takes the damage! I have him down to 8. I’m at 13, but falling fast to a pinger. I need 1 more swamp to kill him with Corrupt that I’ve been holding onto the entire game! I draw Fate Transfer. I was thinking about FTing off of his Grief Tyrant onto some of the tokens, but I have to move all 4 counters to one guy & that would make his 4/4 GT and 8/8. Then, I saw that he was tapped out! I FT’d a -1/-1 counter onto his 1/1 pinger with the enchantment and pump ability! It dies! Finally! End of Turn. He knows I have Corrupt. He is counting on me making a play mistake. He attacks with Grief Tyrant & another 2/2 artifact, hoping I block, sending them to the grave and then he gets to put -1/-1 tokens on all of my guys! I took the damage! I was down to 7 and he was at 8. The next card I drew… Swamp! I laid the swamp, he sighed, and I played corrupt. Great Game.

4 – 1

In the final, I lost BADLY on turn 5 both games!! The deck was evasion and control. I would play a card, he would enchant or control it, then enchant his creature with Steel of the Godhead making it unblockable and giving his blue/white creature +2/+2 and he would swing for 9. Next turn, he swings for 9 and I conceded. That happened two games in a row and took 20 minutes max!! LOL. He had the perfect answer to my creature heavy, corrupt deck.

So, I went 4 -3 overall in games and was 2 – 1 in the matches placing 2nd in the overall! I got packs for the first time ever!

Draft is a lot more fun when you WIN a few games!

Thanks for reading!

Back from ALPHA!

I played magic in ALPHA!

Yep! I started playing magic back in middle school with a good friend of mine. We would get together with these MASSIVE decks and play for HOURS (& that was just one game!). Those where the days.

Well, a summer past and my interest shifted and continued shifting! Now, I’m married, I have a career, and I’ve found Magic… again. Like the prodigal son, I’ve returned.

SO MUCH HAS CHANGED! You can actually play a game in less than 15 minutes! That was unheard of back then! Also, where everyone places the cards are totally different! We used to put our mana on top with the creatures on the bottom! It felt so upside down when I started playing again! Not only that, but I was totally lost! In my first few games back, I was doing all the wrong things. I even got mana burned! But, I’ve been studying cards, decks, sets, blocks and I’m starting to see through the fog again.

I’m happy to see the industry created around Magic. Now there are all kinds of podcasts, websites, blogs, companies, tourneys, & stores devoted to the game of magic! How fun!! I always thought it was a really cool game and had some real potential, but we just couldn’t get into it. It wasn’t as streamlined as it is now.

Anyway, I look forward to posting about my experiences back to the game. I’d love to hear your thoughts on decks, combos, & theories I suggest! PLEASE comment! I need the help!!

HI!

This is just my little site where I talk about deck strategy, post my deck lists and join up with the online “M:tG Community”.

It is still under construction.